PHOTO SPECIAL TO THE CITIZEN Jason Dunning shown at NBC2 in Fort Myers preparing to deliver a weather forecast.

Southwest Florida may have dodged a bullet a few weeks ago when Tropical Storm Arthur formed off the east coast of Florida and made a path northward and turned into a hurricane.

But for area meteorologist Jason Dunning, people shouldn’t be complacent about hurricane activity in this part of the state. He works for NBC2 in Fort Myers.

Dunning said the next few months should end up being pretty interesting.

“We’re closing in on what is statistically the most active months of hurricane season. One thing we’ve been following over the last few weeks is a huge layer of Saharan dust that’s been picked up in the easterlies and carried across the Atlantic basin. This should suppress tropical development in the short term, but expect to see an increase in tropical activity through the months of August and September,” Dunning said.

Due to the extreme weather conditions over most of the nation during the past few weeks, including heavy rains and tornadoes in the Midwest, Dunning was asked if he though hurricane activity would be more active this year.

Jason Dunning

“It’s difficult sometimes to tie extreme weather events through the year to a spike in tropical activity. Often times one has nothing to do with the other, and we’ve seen quieter hurricane seasons when there’s been lots of severe weather in the spring and early summer,” he said.

While hurricane season officially started on June 1, South Florida doesn’t usually see a lot of activity, but Dunning said tropical development in the Gulf can really occur during any part of hurricane season, but the real peak for the Gulf tends to be during the months of September and October.

“As we get later into the hurricane season, we also tend to pay more attention to the Gulf and Caribbean once the tropical waves in the Atlantic shut down,” he said.

He was asked by The Citizen how Lehigh Acres could be affected if there was a direct hit off the Gulf into Lee County.

“The beauty of Lehigh Acres is its higher elevation and proximity away from the coast almost takes the threat for storm surge out of the equation. The only area of concern would be along the Caloosahatchee River in places like Alva and Fort Myers Shores where the river levels could rise high enough to cause some flooding issues.

“Lehigh’s higher ground and distance from the coast are actually reasons why those closer to the coast end up evacuating to the eastern part of Lee County; however, the area would still get walloped with high winds, heavy rain and even some isolated tornadoes could be spawned in the outer rain bands,” Dunning said.

Because Southwest Florida has not had a hurricane in several years now, many believe there won’t be any hurricanes to travel to this area. Being complacent may not be a good idea, according to Dunning.

“Yes I think that’s definitely a big problem everywhere when it comes to hurricanes particularly if it’s been a while since the last ‘big one.’ “Another thing that I notice that causes a lot of folks to be complacent is – let’s say they only end up getting hit by the periphery of a storm, and they confused that for getting hit by the actual core of the hurricane.

“Well the next time a storm comes their way, they might think, ‘that last one wasn’t so bad, so maybe we shouldn’t prepare as much this time around.’ That’s something I’m always concerned about.”

Dunning joined the NBC2 weather team in May of 2011 and said he knew at a very young age that he wanted to share his immense passion for weather with as many people as he could.

When he was in middle school, he used his mother’s video camera to tape his very own weather segments, featuring hand drawn maps and screen shots from The Weather Channel. After rounding up a few other neighborhood kids to record news and sports, he would deliver copies of the “Neighborhood News” to every house on the block.

Any advice about the rest of hurricane season?

“The peak of hurricane season generally coincides with when water temps are the warmest, which is the main energy source for hurricanes and tropical storms. This is also the time when we see intermittent tropical waves drifting off the coast of Africa and into the open Atlantic, and sometimes these waves are able to organize into a tropical cyclone and potentially reach the U.S. mainland.

Dunning said that one of the biggest unknowns when it comes to forecasting tropical weather is “if” or “where” a storm will make landfall.

“We generally have a decent idea in terms of the overall number of storms, but the atmosphere is so complex and unpredictable, it’s just impossible to say when the next big storm will hit.

“If you look at some of the early season indicators like water temperature or the strength of El Nino, this may very well end up being an average season or even slightly below average, and that’s been the general consensus with a lot of the organizations like the National Hurricane Center that make pre-season predictions,” Dunning said.

He hasn’t had the opportunity yet, he said, to cover a land-falling hurricane at a TV station, but being a native Floridian, he said he remembers going through several storms as a kid and young adult.

“The one that sticks out in my mind was 2004, the year of Charley, Jeanne, Frances – what a year that was for Florida. I was in my hometown of Palatka, close to Gainesville, and we were in the dark for a couple of days, nothing like the conditions here in Southwest Florida, but it was a memorable year for sure.”

Dunning said the worst weather event that he has covered is the major tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011 that affected Mississippi and Alabama.

“That was actually the week before I came to Southwest Florida, and we were covering severe weather all day long. We had huge tornadoes ripping through our viewing area, a few communities completely devastated. It was a day I’ll never forget. I hope I never see anything like that ever again, but of course, I’ll be ready for it,” Dunning said.

Weather forecasting isn’t the easiest work. Dunning was asked if Hurricane Arthur was a harbinger of storms to come to this area of Florida sooner than later.

“Honestly, you can’t really use tropical activity early in the season as for what to anticipate later in the year. Sometimes what you’ll see is the quietest hurricane seasons can have the busiest start.

“You just never know. It wasn’t a huge surprise, though that Arthur formed close to the coast. That’s generally where storms will form if it happens earlier in the season. It’s not really until the heart of the season until we start looking off the coast of Africa,” he said.

So for the present, Dunning advises that residents keep their eyes open and keep up with the weather forecasts on TV.

His advice is always be watchful and even though Lehigh Acres is on high grounds, high winds and possible tornadoes can cause havoc to this area.

Dunning is an avid college football fan. On football Saturdays, you can probably find him somewhere cheering on his Florida Gators or sporting some maroon and white to support his Mississippi State Bulldogs.

NBC2 managers said you can watch his forecasts on Saturday and Sunday mornings, or if you wake up ridiculously early during the week, you can see him on the 4:30 a.m. news Monday through Wednesday.

He studied journalism and communication at the University of Florida and then went on to study meteorology at Mississippi State University where he earned his master of science degree.